California nears pandemic record for all hospitalizations


In a stunning sign of the heavy burden California’s hospitals are facing this winter, the state’s total number of hospitalizations for all reasons is approaching the peak of last winter’s COVID-19 surge, even as there are some signs that the rise in coronavirus-positive patients may be starting to ebb.Late last week, California averaged 52,000 people daily in its hospitals for all reasons. The count includes patients who were admitted not only for coronavirus-related reasons, but for other reasons as well, such as car collisions and cancer. That number is higher than the summer Delta surge, which topped out at 50,000 hospitalizations, according to state Department of Public Health data reviewed by The Times. California’s pandemic record of 55,000 people hospitalized daily for all reasons was reached last winter and averaged over a seven-day period. Coronavirus-positive patients continue to account for a wide margin of the overall census. As of Tuesday, 15,179 such patients were hospitalized statewide, the highest since Jan. 29, 2020, state data show. The number of coronavirus-positive patients in California’s intensive care units has also surpassed the summer peak. On Tuesday, California recorded 2,404 coronavirus-positive ICU patients; the summer peak was 2,128. Still, the latest figure is a fraction of the pandemic high of 4,868 coronavirus-positive patients in the ICU, recorded on Jan. 10, 2021. However, there are some signs hospitalization increases are growing less steep. From Dec. 28 to Jan. 4, the overall number of hospitalized coronavirus-positive patients swelled 69%. The next week, it rose 53%.The growth from Jan. 11 to Tuesday was far more modest: about 23%.But even with the apparent slowdown, some areas — including Sacramento and San Francisco counties — are at all-time highs for coronavirus-related hospitalizations.Although some health officials have said the recent COVID-19 deaths are probably the result of the Delta variant, the L.A. County Department of Public Health in recent days has noted that many fatalities have occurred among people who were infected when Omicron was clearly the dominant variant.Officials are now warning of a significant death rate this winter, potentially worse than during the summer Delta wave. Already, Los Angeles County’s death rate in recent days has exceeded that of the summer surge. As of Tuesday, L.A. County was averaging 45 COVID-19 deaths a day over the last week, a rate that has doubled in a week. Over the summer, L.A. County tallied a peak death rate of 37 deaths a day.“Tragically, we are prepared for an even higher number of deaths in the coming week,” L.A. County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said. “With unvaccinated individuals 22 times more likely to die from COVID-19 compared to those fully vaccinated, residents should not delay getting vaccinated and boosted, as these measures are saving lives.”California has averaged about 106 COVID-19 deaths a day over the last week, a rate that has doubled since the end of December. During the state’s summer surge, California peaked at 135 deaths a day.Nationwide, the United States has been averaging between 1,700 and 1,900 COVID-19 deaths a day, around the same as summertime. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predicts that death rates will be stable or worsen in the coming weeks, with 1,500 to 5,000 deaths a day in the week leading up to Valentine’s Day.The CDC has warned that its models have been less reliable recently, with actual deaths greater than what had been forecast.In recent weeks, California’s emergency rooms have experienced strain even worse than during last winter’s deadly surge. Earlier this month, California was averaging 47,000 daily emergency room visits for all reasons over a weekly period. By contrast, visits during the summer Delta surge peaked at 42,000.The recent peak in overall emergency room visits has been worsened by those seeking coronavirus-related treatment in ERs, where there have been nearly 12,000 recent daily visits for this type of treatment across California. That’s worse than the previous record of nearly 11,000 visits a day, recorded last winter. California’s state epidemiologist, Dr. Erica Pan, said last week that “we are seeing near-crisis levels” of emergency room overcrowding in some areas.With fewer hospital workers, it’s harder to admit patients from the ER, which then keeps ambulances waiting for long periods to drop off patients, resulting in a worsening of 911 response times to new callers, Pan said.Many hospital emergency rooms have been so crowded, and staffing so scarce because of employee infections, that a number of scheduled surgeries and procedures have been postponed. Those delays can affect the health of people needing treatment for cancer or other important medical issues, in which prompt care can make a difference. Experts say it’s essential that people who are eligible for a booster get one to help fight the spread — and the effects — of Omicron. People 12 and older who received the second dose of their Pfizer or Moderna shot five months ago can get a booster; those who got a Johnson & Johnson shot two months ago can.According to British data, shortly after getting a second dose of vaccine, there is 64% vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization, but that falls to 44% six months after the second shot. Getting a booster puts vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization above 80%.

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