A day in Kiev with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and a day in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The plan is to arrive early in the morning and leave late at night. If the geopolitical situation was not so tense, and relations between Ukraine and Russia were not so toxic, then these trips would be completely normal first official visits by the new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Initially, it would be an attempt by the heads of state to assess each other, to see whether there is chemistry between them and if political harmony is possible. A lot depends on these factors in bilateral and geopolitical relations. However, the new German chancellor has no time for such a gentle and organized start.
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Extremely dangerous situation
US intelligence agencies are warning of a Russian attack on Ukraine before the coming weekend. In line with the US and other western states, the foreign office in Berlin has urged German citizens to leave Ukraine. The government has assessed the situation as extremely dangerous. On the sidelines of the German presidential election in Berlin on Sunday, Chancellor Scholz spoke of “a very, very serious threat to peace.” Scholz has launched a diplomatic offensive. A week ago, he was in Washington with US President Joe Biden. Scholz then met European heads of state and governments at the chancellery in Berlin. He hosted the French president and Poland’s head of state, as well as the heads of government from Denmark and three Baltic states. The EU Council President was also in Berlin, and on Thursday, ten-hour long talks were held in the so-called Normandy format between Russia and Ukraine, moderated by Germany and France.
Negotiate and deter
So, now Kyiv and Moscow. Scholz has high expectations even though the German government is trying to keep the bar low in the run-up to the talks. According to government sources, they do not expect to fly back to Berlin from Moscow on Tuesday evening with a concrete result. The talks are part of intensive diplomatic efforts by all allies. The aim is to keep the channels of dialogue open with Russia about concrete steps towards de-escalation. The German chancellor speaks of a “double strategy.” On the one hand, there are the negotiations, but on the other hand, there is the threat. “In the event of military aggression against Ukraine that threatens its territorial integrity and its sovereignty, it will lead to tough reactions and sanctions, which we have carefully prepared and which we can make effective immediately together with our allies in Europe and in NATO.” The alliance is united and determined, Scholz said a few days ago. “No one should expect us to diverge, we will act in a unified manner.”
Germany‘s special relations with Russia
The German chancellor’s visit to Kyiv and Moscow should be seen differently to, for example, French President Emmanuel Macron’s trip a week ago. German bilateral relations could never be seen ahistorically, government circles say. Endless suffering has been inflicted on the region in Germany’s name. So, one must be grateful that it has been possible in recent decades to restore relations. However, this did not result in a special role for Germany. “This is our involvement, embedded in what everyone is trying to do.”
Differences over arms deliveries
However, Germany continues to refuse to supply weapons to Ukraine with reference to history. There is even still no clearance on a request from Estonia for old arms supplies from the former German Democratic Republic‘s army to be given to Ukraine. The German chancellor is not expected to make any promises on arms deliveries to Kyiv either, according to government circles. On the other hand, a wish list for military equipment should be approved, including electronic tracking systems, mine-clearing equipment, protective suits, digital radios and night-vision equipment. “One or the other” of these requests could be “looked at more closely”, according to a statement from Berlin. In addition to a political decision, it is also a matter of availability. “We don’t have anything left at the Bundeswehr; there aren’t 1,000 night-vision devices lying around.”
Economic aid possible
Chancellor Scholz would offer Ukraine further financial assistance. Kyiv is also demanding this. Germany has been its largest donor in recent years, giving around two billion euros aid to stabilize the economy. Currently, the Ukrainian currency is under pressure, which is likely to further complicate the situation. “Ukraine can be sure that we will show the necessary solidarity, as we have in the past,” Scholz stressed. Another talking point in Kyiv and Moscow is likely to be the German-Russian Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. European allies and the US have noted with surprise how the German government has long tried to keep the sea pipeline, which is not yet in operation, off the list of possible sanctions. The pipeline, which runs through the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany, is a “private sector project” and the approval process is “completely apolitical,” Scholz said as recently as December.
Not all sanctions on the table
US President Joe Biden clearly said in Washington last Monday, “If Russia, for example, crosses the border with Ukraine with tanks and troops, Nord Stream 2 will no longer exist,” Olaf Scholz was present at the time and seemed uncomfortable. For weeks, he has steadfastly refused to even say the name “Nord Stream 2.” There are many reasons for this reluctance. The official version is that the German government does not want to talk about concrete sanctions and “put everything on the table,” as Chancellor Scholz says. The Russian president, he says, must be left in uncertainty so as not to be able to calculate concretely how much sanctions would cost.
The Social Democratic Party and Russia
However, Olaf Scholz has other motives. For one, he does not want Germany alone to bear the brunt of any sanctions that might be imposed. What about US oil purchases in Russia, for example? Wouldn’t those also have to be suspended? In addition, Scholz, a Social Democrat, has to consider the mood inside his own party. Nord Stream 2 has left its impression on the German state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where Social Democrat politician Manuela Schwesig, as the state governor, has been doing everything she can for years to ensure that the pipeline is built.
Industry hopes
German industry also has a vested interest in ensuring that relations between Germany and Russia are not too strained. Despite the worsening Ukraine crisis, the German Committee on Eastern European Economic Relations will still hold its annual business talks with the Russian president. Due to the coronavirus pandemic, twenty of Germany‘s top business leaders want to hold a virtual meeting with the Russian president rather than go in person to Moscow or Sochi. A date has been strictly planned for the beginning of March in consultation with the German government, according to reports.