THOUGH COVID cases in Maharashtra have surged five times this fortnight in comparison to December 5-19, 2021, the case fatality rate (CFR) – the number of cases resulting in deaths – stands at only 0.32 %.
An analysis done by The Indian Express showed that in the December 5-19 period, the state recorded 10,818 cases, of which 179 succumbed to the infection, or a 1.65% CFR.
In the next 15 days, while the total cases flared up to 61,888, marking an almost five-time surge, only 200 deaths were recorded, bringing the CFR to 0.32% in Maharashtra.
The dip in CFR means that the proportion of deaths has declined.
On Monday, the state recorded 12,160 cases with eleven deaths. On January 2, out of the 11,877 cases recorded, the state had only nine deaths.
With the new, more contagious Omicron variant surging, active cases in Maharashtra rose to 52,442 on January 3. This number was around 7,100 in the second week of December. However, nearly 87% of the hospital beds in the state are still vacant as most of the patients are asymptomatic.
On Monday, Mumbai recorded a 16.7% positivity rate, which is the percentage of tests turning positive out of all the tests done. Out of the 49,283 tests conducted, 8,082 returned positive. Only 2 deaths or a 0.02% CFR, was reported. This substantiates the global theories that Omicron is more transmissible but less severe than the Delta variant.
Data collected by The Indian Express showed that in the first wave, the CFR was 2.59% with 52,835 deaths among 20,36,130 cases. In the second wave, Maharshtra recorded 1.78% CFR with 78,383 deaths among 44,00,237 identified cases.
“Earlier, even when we had 60,000 plus cases, the CFR would go above 1%. But now, so far, as the symptoms are mild and oxygen requirement is low, fatality is extremely limited. And most of the serious patients have comorbidities,” said Dr Avinash Supe, in-charge of the state Covid-19 death committee.
But considering the doubling rate of the state, doctors are certain the third wave would surpass the monthly surge. In April, 2021, the total cases increased to 17,89,406 – the highest in the pandemic when the CFR was 1.65% with 29,492 deaths.
“The situation is under control. In Mumbai, 90% are asymptomatic and don’t require medical treatment. So, it is time to double mask and follow Covid-19 protocols,” said Dr Shashank Joshi, member of the Covid-19 task force.
On Monday, 68 new Covid cases were detected with Omicron. This takes the total tally to 578 in the state, of which, 368 are from Mumbai, but 259 have been already discharged.
Meanwhile, 30 students in a Bhiwandi school have tested positive. They have been kept under observation at the district general hospital.