Published: Published Date – 12:18 AM, Fri – 25 February 22
By Dhananjay Tripathi
A couple of weeks ago, Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar was in Australia to attend the fourth foreign ministers’ meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad). This meeting was viewed by experts as significant because, in the joint statement, there was an indirect reference to Pakistan’s support for terrorism against India. The joint statement mentions — “We reiterate our condemnation of terrorist attacks in India, including 26/11 Mumbai and Pathankot attacks”.
Moreover, there was an acknowledgement of future collaboration in the Indo-Pacific region. The statement says, “we reaffirm the Quad’s commitment to supporting Indo Pacific countries’ efforts to advance a free and open Indo-Pacific — a region which is inclusive and resilient, and in which states strive to protect the interests of their people, free from coercion”. This joint statement was celebrated, and a few experts pronounced that India finally decided the strategic course — to join the West.
While such conclusions appear a little awkward, they are not entirely baseless. India radically shifted its foreign policy, projecting itself strategically closer to the West in the last few years. The Indian economy is now much dependent on the developed world, and the recent Chinese assertion and border conflict also forced India to look West.
Nevertheless, there is always an apprehension in the Indian foreign policy establishment that it cannot wholly rely on the West and need more significant engagement with other world powers. We have recently witnessed how India undertook regional diplomacy and approached Russia, Central Asian Republics, and Iran to formulate a viable strategy on Afghanistan.
Russia-Ukraine Crisis
Interestingly, there is no end to the foreign policy conundrum for India, as the present Russia-Ukraine crisis shows. Russia recently threw a direct challenge to the US and European powers by recognising the sovereignty of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR), the two regions of Eastern Ukraine.
Notably, both DPR and LPR had declared independence in 2014 but were accepted as a part of Ukraine by the international community. This changed on 21st February 2022 when Russian President Vladimir Putin recognised both as independent States. Thus, Russia became the first member of the United Nations to recognise DPR and LPR. The fear is that Russia may use its influence to help DPR and LPR acquire more diplomatic recognition.
Moreover, Russia had sent troops of what it called a ‘peacekeeping force’ into DPR and LPR. Technically, it is like sending Russian troops inside the Ukrainian territory. Notably, for Ukraine, DPR and LPR are terrorist organisations that operate with help from Russia. These decisions of President Putin, who earlier in a televised speech even raised serious questions on the existence of Ukraine, linking it with Russian history, has irked the US and its allies.
Russia remained opposed to the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) near its border. Ukraine’s attempt to join NATO ultimately provoked Russia to support DPR and LPR in this context. In a way, it is like dismembering Ukraine and making it weak. Russia in 2014 annexed Crimea from Ukraine, and the current move is viewed in the larger context, where Russia may slowly control a substantial part of Ukraine. Russia wanted assurance from the USA, the de facto leader of NATO.
For Russia, NATO’s weapon system near its borders is a military threat. Russia, therefore, wants to deter Ukraine’s attempt to join NATO. The present crisis could be traced to September 2020, when the Ukrainian President finalised the National Security Strategy intending to attain NATO membership. Last December, Russia once again demanded a guarantee from the West that Ukraine would not be included in NATO. On this, NATO and the West remain non-committal. Even diplomatic endeavours failed. Now that President Putin has announced a military operation against Ukraine, it may have serious repercussions.
Over the years, the US kept reiterating it will not let Russia violate the sovereignty of Ukraine. Now when the Russian troops have already entered Ukraine — in DPR and LPR, the US retaliation is inevitable. Enjoying considerable sway in the liberal world, the US will ensure that the international community, particularly its allies, takes stringent measures to pressurise Russia. Likewise, Russia will use every possible diplomatic effort to counter the US move to isolate it.
Not Much Options for India
India is an important ally of both — the US and Russia. In fact, Indian strategic partnership with the US has grown over the years. The Indo-US strategic relations has a global dimension with convergence on several issues, like in the Indo-Pacific. Similarly, India-Russia strategic partnership has a unique history. In the past, more than 70% of India’s military hardware were of Soviet/Russian origin. Even at present, Russian arms account for almost 49% of Indian total military imports. India-Russia also have joint ventures in defence production, and some of the success stories include supersonic cruise missile BrahMos. Significantly, India also shares cordial relations with Ukraine. India-Ukraine in 2021 signed a defence agreement of $70 million that include the upgradation of Indian weapons, and Ukraine will also buy arms from India. Let us not forget that nearly 20,000 Indian students are in Ukraine, mainly enrolled for medical studies.
These complex realities make it difficult for India to take a position with any parties. India has expressed its concern about the present situation and appealed for an early diplomatic solution. The Indian problem is that if the crisis escalates to war (that is now the situation) — limited or otherwise, which side it will take. The US and its allies are imposing economic sanctions on Russia, also putting a few Russian citizens under the sanction list. If it remains restricted to sanctions and diplomacy, it will be better for India or else, it may complicate things for our foreign policymakers.
Neutrality?
Except for India, all other Quad nations had taken a position against Russia. The US, Australia and Japan have either imposed or are in the process of imposing strict economic sanctions on Russia. Other Quad nations may join hands with the US in any kind of military operation as well. As discussed above, the Indian position cannot be similar, despite our recent passion for associating ourselves with the Western powers. For India, being neutral at this stage is in its national interest. To conclude, the Russia-Ukraine crisis is also a moment to introspect more on the foreign policy orientation. The world order is changing fast, and we need rethinking.
The author is Senior Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations, South Asian University, New Delhi.
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