Goa, Uttarakhand see lower voter turnout in Assembly elections: Will this affect incumbent BJP’s chances?


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As the voting ended at 6 p.m, the tentative voter turnout was recorded at 78.94 per cent across the 40 Assembly constituencies in Goa. In the 2017 Assembly elections, India’s smallest state had an impressive turnout of 83 per cent.

Uttarakhand saw a voting turnout of 62.51 per cent for the 70 Assembly constituencies across 13 districts in the hilly state. Both the states have finished voting in a single phase. Uttarakhand saw 65.64 per cent voter turnout in the previous Assembly elections in 2017.

Goa: The Parrikar factor

Goa election is a multi-cornered contest this time with as many as eight national and regional parties in the fray. The incumbent BJP is challenged by Congress, Trinamool Congress and Aam Aadmi Party. TMC is in alliance with Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) which gave Goa its first Chief Minister in 1963.

The state has had the infamy of defections, horse-trading, and fractured mandates in the past. There was no clear majority in the 2017 elections. While Congress had won 17 seats and emerged as the single largest party, it could not form a government as it was three seats short of the halfway mark. Such was the blow that most of the Congress MLAs later left the party, reducing its strength to two MLAs in the Goa Assembly.

On the other hand, BJP, which had won 13 seats, stitched together a coalition under the aegis of Manohar Parrikar. The saffron party formed the government with Parrikar sworn in as Chief Minister. 

For BJP, having been in power in Goa for 10 years, this is the first election after the death of former CM Manohar Parrikar — the man who could singlehandedly be credited with the party’s rise in Goa.

BJP started as an alliance partner with MGP, which despite having a solid support base in the majority OBC-Hindu population, was ridden with frequent defections. In 1989, the saffron party managed only 0.39 per cent vote share and won no seats as it tried to cash in on the Ram Mandir wave in its maiden run in Goa. However, in the very next Assembly elections in 1994, the party’s vote share soared to 9.5 per cent and it added four assembly seats to its tally under the leadership of Manohar Parrikar, who cobbled an alliance with the MGP. BJP gave MGP the stability it sorely lacked with Parrikar’s effective RSS channel working at the grassroots level to claim the strong Hindu vote base that was once the core vote bank of the MGP.

In 1999 just before the assembly elections, the BJP broke its alliance with the MGP. This time, BJP was the main opposition to the Congress, replacing MGP. The blow struck by Parrikar was the one that MGP could never recover from to date.

With Congress not being able to keep its flock together despite a full majority,

Parrikar became the CM in October 2000 with the support of defected groups. He called for fresh elections and was elected the CM in 2002. Since then, BJP has been a force to reckon with in Goa and alliances were either formed with Parrikar, or by others to keep him out of power. He brought BJP to power in 2012, and the party has been at the helm since then.

Uttarakhand: 10 CMs in two decades

The hilly state has been seeing a lower voter turnout with every passing election. While in 2012, the voter turnout was 66.85 per cent, it saw a dip in 2017 with a 65.64 per cent turnout. This year, it dipped further, with only 62.51 per cent of the voters turning up to poll.

The hilly state is no stranger to political instability. Uttarakhand has witnessed a record ten chief ministers — from BJP’s Nityanand Swami to the current BJP incumbent Pushkar Singh Dhami — since the state was carved out of neighbouring Uttar Pradesh in 2000. Of these, only one — ND Tiwari — completed his tenure.

From political defections, infighting to resource mismanagement, Uttarakhand has always been the administrator’s challenge. Uttarakhand’s electorate is largely divided, not on the basis of parliamentary constituencies as other states, but along hills and plains — Kumaoni and Garhwali. To add to the woes of the ruling dispensation, there have always been problems when the demands of voters and political leaders from one region are ignored in favour of those from the other. 

While it has been traditionally a battle between BJP and Congress, this time AAP is expected to create a dent in the vote shares.

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