Congress’s Okram Ibobi Singh (L), CM N Biren Singh (C), NPP’s Yumnam Joykumar Singh (R)Photo : TwitterThe magic number is 31 or anything above that, for a party to form the next government in the north-eastern state of Manipur. Exit polls have been released with most of them pointing to the current Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) winning a single majority for the first time in the state. Less than twenty seats have been predicted for Congress in all the polls. The National People’s Party (NPP) who had allied with the BJP in the last government is expected to win less than 10 seats while the Naga People’s Front (NPF) is expected to follow NPP with a narrow margin. Other contesting candidates are from the Janata Dal (United), the National Congress Party (NCP), Lok Janshakti Party (LFP), Shiv Sena and some are contesting as independents. Congress has allied with the Communist Party of India (CPI) for the elections as part of the Manipur Progressive Secular Alliance. The India Today-Axis My India exit poll shows the ruling BJP to grab majority by winning 33-43 seats in the state. They have predicted 4-8 seats each for the Congress and the NPP. Other parties like the NPF and JD(U) are expected to scoop the remaining seats. Here are all the exit poll seat projections from various outlets: Related News’Manipur Exit Poll is laughable, we will get 20+ seats’, says NPP supremo Yumnam Joykumar Singh18 injured and four deceased during Manipur polls amid high turnoutABP News-CVoter = BJP: 23-27 | Congress: 12-16 | NPP: 10-14 | NPF: 03-07 | Others: 02-06 seats Jan Ki Baat-India News = BJP: 23-28 | Congress: 10-14 | NPP: 07-08 | NPF: 05-08 | JDU: 05-07 | IND: 02-03 seatsRepublic TV-P MARQ = BJP: 31-37 | Congress: 13-19 | NPP: 03-09 | NPF: 01-05 | Others: 00-02 seats Zee News-Design Boxed = BJP: 32-38 | Congress: 12-17 | NPF: 03-05 | NPP: 02-04 | Others: 02-05 seats Axis My India-India Today = BJP: 33-43 | Congress:04-08 | NPP: 04-08 |Others: 04-08 seats India TV-Ground Zero Research = BJP: 26-31 | Congress: 12-17 | NPP: 06-10 | NPF: 02-06 | Others: 03-06 seats Almost all the exit polls have given the ruling BJP an advantage while limiting the Congress to minimal seats. Regional parties NPP and NPF may be put in a position to decide the winner in case there is no clear majority. The current government being a coalition is made of three parties, namely the BJP, the Naga People’s Front (NPF) and the National People’s Party (NPP). But this time the BJP had decided to contest solo. The NPP, being the kingmaker in the 2017 elections, have drifted apart from the BJP this time and have decided to contest on their own merit. Deputy Chief minister and NPP supremo Yumnam Joykumar Singh contradicted the exit polls saying, “they were laughable” and that his party would emerge with more than twenty seats. The exit polls showed NPP coming in third after BJP and Congress. NPP may as well be the kingmaker if the BJP does not win the predicted number of seats.In the 2017 Manipur state elections, the Congress had finished as the single largest party bagging 28 seats, just three shy of a majority. Making an alliance with another party should have been a simple matter but what happened next was something the grand old party was not ready for. One day after the results, Congress MLA-elect T Shyamkumar from the Andro constituency jumped ship and defected to the BJP. Following him, five more Congress legislators deserted the party, switching to the BJP. They included the president of the Manipur Pradesh Congress Committee (MPCC) Govindas Konthoujam and the vice president of MPCC Chaltonlien Amo. The interesting bit is that during those elections the Axis-India Today exit poll predicted a sweeping victory for the BJP winning more than 45 seats in the assembly and Congress being restricted to 5-8 seats. The BJP did end up with the largest share of votes. In the past five years, more than forty per cent of Congress Manipur MLAs have shifted their allegiance to the saffron party. Ahead of the elections, legislators from the NPP, the LJP and the TMC have also switched sides to BJP. The only TMC MLA in the Manipur assembly Tongbram Robindro Singh shifted his loyalty to the BJP in January this year. The BJP had made inroads in the north-eastern state only recently in the 2017 state elections. In the 2012 elections, the party had drawn a blank. Suffice to say, the party’s 2014 victory at the centre opened the opportunity for it to make a mark in the north-eastern region of the country. N Biren Singh is the state’s first BJP Chief minister. Manipur has a long history of political players shifting parties as they see fit. Therefore, the poll sense among the voters in the state has considerably shifted towards looking at the candidate in their constituency and not the party they represent. One of the prime examples would be incumbent Chief minister Nongthombam Biren Singh who has consecutively won from the Heingang Vidhan Sabha constituency since 2002. He was first elected from the erstwhile Democratic Revolutionary Peoples Party. After the party merged with Congress, he was elected consecutively from a Congress ticket in the 2007 and 2012 state elections. In 2016, he quit the Congress and joined BJP and won again in the 2017 state elections. Congress stalwart Okram Ibobi Singh led the party’s campaign. Singh is currently the leader of opposition in the assembly and has served as a three-time consecutive Chief minister of Manipur from Congress. According to reports, the Congress has assigned senior leaders to oversee the post poll scenario and keep a tab on all its elected MLAs in case of defections. Manipur has 12 districts comprising sixty legislative assembly seats. The elections in Manipur were held in two phases on February 27 and March 3 respectively. Repolling took place on March 8 in six poll booths of the districts of Ukhrul and Senapati after cases of poll violence. The state saw a voter turnout of 88.63 per cent in the first phase of polling and 76.04 per cent in the second phase. Counting of votes is set to take place on March 10.