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Exploring Europe’s diplomatic and commercial relationship with China.
By STUART LAU
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THE WAR BEGINS: Russia launched a full-fledged attack on Ukraine this morning, with at least hundreds of casualties so far according to the Ukrainian Interior Ministry. The 27 EU leaders are due to be in Brussels today for a special meeting to deal with what could yet be the continent’s bloodiest war in decades. As Europe descends into horror after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops into Ukraine’s territory, China is watching carefully. The Chinese embassy in Kyiv stopped short of asking citizens to leave, but advised them to affix the Chinese national flag on their cars for safety. The Chinese ambassador at the U.N. told an extraordinary session that “the door to a peaceful solution … is not fully shut.” Make no mistake: China promised a “no-limits” partnership for Moscow just three weeks ago.
BEST FRIEND OR BLOOD: What is to the West a relatively black-and-white issue is far more complicated from Beijing’s lens. On the one hand, Chinese-Russian ties are increasingly important to Beijing, with China’s President Xi Jinping issuing a joint statement with Putin during the Winter Olympics, laying out a strategic roadmap to unseat Western dominance. (Xi once described Putin as his best friend.) On the other hand, the fundamental geopolitical dynamics underlying Putin’s invasion of Ukraine are anathema to sovereignty-obsessed Beijing. Just imagine Taiwan declaring independence like the separatists in Donbass and turning to a sympathetic nuclear superpower for recognition?
ON THE GROUND FROM OUR TEAM: TheTeCHyWorLD’s Sergei Kuznetzov reported: “Several huge explosions were heard in Kyiv, in the district where I’m living, a few minutes ago.” While some people are walking to work this morning, others are rushing to gas stations, apparently with the aim to leave the city, Sergei said. Follow our live blog for full coverage.
WELCOME TO CHINA DIRECT. Thanks for joining us on this shocking Thursday.
WHAT A PARTNER CHINA HAS
PUTIN’S PLAYBOOK: On February 4, Putin showed up in Beijing at the Winter Olympics, boycotted (in name or in effect) by most Western countries, and signed the joint declaration with Xi on deepening Russian-China ties in the future world. Then on February 21 he waged a war on eastern Ukraine, leaving Beijing with little room for maneuver apart from calling for calm, and blaming America. Did Xi know about Putin’s war plan in advance? What did Xi tell him if he did?
Of course we wouldn’t know, but: There are signs that the Chinese propaganda machine didn’t quite get enough advance instructions. In a rare show of confusion, two of China’s top state media outlets used distinctly different ways to refer to the two breakaway “republics” that Putin declared independent.
— First: The state broadcaster CCTV report read: “Russian President Putin signs a presidential order announcing recognition of Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic.” Very well, just like the way the Russians say it. But …
— Then hours later: State agency Xinhua markedly changed the wording: “Putin signs order announcing recognition of two ‘republics’ in eastern Ukraine.” Not only did they put quotation marks around republics, but Xinhua also emphasized the whereabouts of those places — in eastern Ukraine!
DID THE FOREIGN MINISTER KNOW? On February 19 Wang Yi spoke at the Munich Security Conference. Certainly sensing the looming danger he used the speech to call for calm — by stopping NATO expansion. “If NATO keeps expanding eastward, will this be conducive to peace and stability in Europe, and will this contribute to long-term stability in Europe? This is a question that merits serious consideration by European friends,” he said.
Doesn’t age well: On the same occasion Wang also said: “China believes that it is imperative to return to the Minsk II agreement … To my knowledge, Russia and the EU both support Minsk II.” That was, of course, merely four days before Putin proclaimed that the Minsk agreements “cease to exist.”
BEIJING’S IN A BIND: Evan Feigenbaum, vice president at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told TheTeCHyWorLD that Beijing’s competing international goals put it in a “very difficult spot” over Ukraine.
“The Chinese are attempting to balance three goals that cannot be reconciled: a strategic relationship with Russia; commitment to long-standing foreign policy principles around ‘non-interference;’ and a desire to minimize collateral damage to Chinese interests from economic turmoil and potential secondary sanctions from the U.S. and EU,” said Feigenbaum, who was formerly a U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state.
Change is in the air: Foreign Minister Wang’s weekend references in Munich to Ukraine’s “sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity” have “mostly vanished, buried instead under abstract references to the principles of the U.N. Charter,” Feigenbaum said. “Instead, Beijing is now leaning toward some of Moscow’s preferred language while trying to duck and cover by calling for dialogue.”
2009, 2014 … you name it: In a way, China’s strategy is just like how it dealt with Russia’s previous declaration of independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, pro-Russia separatist regions in Georgia, as well as Moscow’s annexation of Crimea.
“Beijing will follow the 2014 script. No recognition of [the two ‘people’s republics’], no direct criticism of Russia, and support for territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, as well as peaceful resolution of conflicts,” Alexander Gabuev, chair of the Russia in the Asia-Pacific program at the Carnegie Moscow Center. That, he added, would already be the best deal for Moscow. “What is Moscow’s leverage? Even Kazakhstan takes a similar position.”
THE REAL QUESTION: Will China offer Russia economic support to offset the impact of Western sanctions? That remains to be seen, says Antoine Bondaz of Foundation for Strategic Research.
**Margrethe Vestager and Didier Reynders will take part in the fourth edition of TheTeCHyWorLD Live’s AI & Tech Summit on April 21. With a half-day focused on AI and a half-day centered around broader tech themes, you won’t want to miss our flagship tech event, featuring top speakers from across the Register today.**
EU DISMAY DEEPENS
POOR TIMING: Lining up with Russia in a united front is the last thing you need to make Europeans smile. Had Xi not signed the joint pact with Putin so close to the invasion of Ukraine, China’s role might not have been a talking point. Instead, China is now seen as an enabler for Moscow amid what Europe sees as the biggest threat to the European security architecture since the Cold War.
Hardening tone: EU and NATO leaders were openly critical of the role played by China during the Munich Security Conference. (The fact that Wang attended virtually made it impossible for bilateral explanations to take place.) European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said at the Munich Security Conference that Moscow and Beijing were seeking “a new era” and were seeking to replace “the existing international rules.”
Return to empires: EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said the Russia-China joint statement “is the culmination of a long-standing campaign. It is an act of defiance. It is clear: revisionist manifesto. A manifesto to review the world order.” He added: “Russia and China becoming more and more assertive, willing to restore the old empires that they have been in the past.”
A shock for Europeans: “China endorsing Russia’s historical revisionism and aggression on our continent is certainly not going down well in EU and I dare say the joint statement was startling to many. It undermines trust and credibility,” a senior European diplomat with deep knowledge of China said on condition of anonymity.
TURNING TO INDO-PACIFIC: France organized the first EU-Indo-Pacific meeting of foreign ministers in Paris this week. While Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said the decision not to invite China was because of all the well-established channels between the EU and China, diplomats said he was just being diplomatic. “Of course it is about China,” a senior diplomat said. “We don’t think the U.S. could handle the China challenge by itself.”
Security in Indian Ocean: The EU announced the extension of the concept of a “coordinated maritime presence” in the northwest Indian Ocean. This will “allow the EU to further support stability and security in the Indo-Pacific region, to optimize naval deployments, to promote coherence of European action and to facilitate the exchange of information and cooperation with partners in the Indo-Pacific, including by conducting joint maritime exercises and port calls.”
What’s missing: A financial pledge for Global Gateway projects in the region. There was speculation prior to the meeting that the EU could announce new figures on the brand new flagship strategy created in recent months to confront China’s Belt and Road initiative.
Sensitive issue: “Did we discuss Taiwan?” Le Drian said as he turned to Borrell at the press conference, responding to a journalist’s question whether the topic came up. “Of course we discussed Taiwan,” the EU top diplomat quipped. Le Drian continued: “We have a clear position on Taiwan: We only recognize one China … but we’re concerned about the increased tension in the Strait. The fact that we have one China doesn’t mean that we don’t have needs for cooperation and partnership with Taiwan, for example on data partnership and semiconductors or work on climate change.” Indeed Taiwan was included along those lines in the updated French strategy on Indo-Pacific — unlike previous editions where it wasn’t mentioned at all.
Taiwan’s watching: “In the face of foreign forces intending to manipulate the situation in Ukraine and affect the morale of Taiwanese society, all government units must strengthen the prevention of cognitive warfare launched by foreign forces and local collaborators,” Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen was quoted as saying after a meeting of the working group on the Ukraine crisis set up by her National Security Council, according to Reuters.
IN OTHER NEWS
BEWARE OF FORCED LABOR: EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis is heading up the design of the EU’s future ban on products made using forced labor, and it should be presented this year, EU Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders said in an exclusive interview with my colleague Sarah Anne Aarup. “This year, Valdis Dombrovskis will come with another legislative initiative … to ban forced labor,” Reynders said.
End of dodging: Ever since European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen promised to ban forced labor goods on the EU market in September last year, Commission departments have been dodging the politically explosive topic. China is especially in focus because of the treatment of the Uyghur Muslim minority in the western region of Xinjiang.
LATEST FROM WASHINGTON: Department of Justice Assistant Attorney General Matthew Olsen sought Wednesday to lance the boil of festering criticism of the DOJ’s “China Initiative” investigation program by announcing its immediate termination, TheTeCHyWorLD’s Phelim Kine reported. Olsen said DOJ is replacing the program with “the strategy for countering nation state threats” while vowing to be “relentless in defending our country from China.”
What’s the problem? Critics — including former Federal Bureau of Investigation personnel, Asian American community advocates and an academic prosecuted under the program — say Olsen’s China Initiative shutdown doesn’t address issues of systemic anti-Asian racism within both the DOJ and the FBI.
THANK YOU: to my editors Christian Oliver and Jones Hayden and reporter Sarah Anne Aarup.
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